Election 2008

No one has bragging rights over the Latino vote, not yet. And after the massive immigrant rights marches of 2006, the old token “tamale politics” won’t work — if they ever did.

With Sen. Barack Obama emerging as the probable opponent to Republican Sen. John McCain, the Latino media and blogosphere have been abuzz with speculation on how the two might fare head-to-head.

Obama did poorly among Latinos against Sen. Hillary Clinton (On Super Tuesday, Latinos voted for Clinton by a 2-to-1 margin). The conventional wisdom has been that he is woefully vulnerable in this demographic. But McCain is not necessarily ideally positioned, according to Los Angeles political columnist Pilar Marrero. “*

FOR MANY CONSERVATIVES, Sen. John McCain is not their favorite Republican. They think he’s built a career at their expense, painting them as fools and bigots. They resent his holier-than-thou attitude. And they’re not inclined to trust anyone who has been so fawned over by the national media.

Curiously, a lot of liberal Democrats feel the same way about McCain. He isn’t their favorite Republican either — but it’s because they know he’ll be tough to beat in November. They would have preferred to run against someone more extreme and easier to demonize. That’s not John McCain.”*

As Hillary Clinton’s bid for the Democratic presidential nomination loses steam on the mainland, it’s full speed ahead in Puerto Rico, which holds one of the last remaining primaries June 1.

Her focus on the island has some political observers wondering why. Clinton has fallen behind her opponent, Sen. Barack Obama, and it seems mathematically impossible for her to attain the number of delegates needed to lock the nomination in the handful of contests left.

Meanwhile, she continues to go after Puerto Rico’s 55 pledged delegates.”*

When Barack Obama strolled over to the “barrio” last week, he took a calculated risk.

There, in the left corner of the House chamber where Hispanic Democrats gather during floor votes, the presidential candidate walked into territory dominated by fierce loyalists of his Democratic rival, Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Protocol demanded that Obama not be too pushy, not too ready to act as the “presumptive nominee,” especially on a day when Clinton had vowed to stay in the presidential race despite Obama’s growing tally of votes for the party nomination.

But he is going to need the Latino leaders — really need them — if he heads the Democratic ticket this year. And the Congressional Hispanic Caucus knows it.”*

For many conservatives, John McCain is not their favorite Republican. They think he’s built a career at their expense, painting them as fools and bigots. They resent his holier-than-thou attitude. And they’re not inclined to trust anyone who has been so fawned over by the national media.

Curiously, a lot of liberal Democrats feel the same way about McCain. He isn’t their favorite Republican either - but it’s because they know he’ll be tough to beat in November. They would have preferred to run against someone more extreme and easier to demonize. That’s not John McCain.”*

John McCain is generating outrage among a border watch organization for accepting an invitation to a controversial Hispanic group.

Al Garza, national executive director of the Minuteman Civil Defense Corps, is expressing outrage over Senator McCain’s (R-Arizona) planned attendance to the annual convention of the National Council of La Raza. Garza claims the group espouses the re-conquering of the southwestern United States for assimilation back into Mexico.”*

Here in tiny Bruceton Mills — one of the least Hispanic towns in the union’s least Hispanic state, which hosts a Democratic primary today — the subject of illegal immigration has become a hot topic.

“It’s a terrible problem,” said James Britton, who owns Things ‘n Stuff, a combo restaurant-gift shop-hardware store in Bruceton Mills, which according to the U.S. Census has no Hispanic residents.

Britton, a Republican, remains a big fan of Fred Thompson and his anti-immigration sentiments. This fall, he said, he’ll reluctantly vote for John McCain, the presumptive GOP nominee, whose support for legalization of illegal immigrants rankles many locals.”*

Florida’s Republicans are gathering Saturday in Orlando to shore up support among Hispanics as the presidential election nears — part of a long-term strategy to earn the community’s votes for good.

Among the heavy-hitters attending the Republican Hispanic Conference: Luis Fortuño, the front-runner gubernatorial candidate from Puerto Rico; U.S. Department of Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez; and U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez of Florida.

“What you can expect to see is a lot of people excited, discussing how to get the word of Republican principles to the Hispanic community,” said Marcos Marchena, an Orlando attorney who is chairman of the party’s Hispanic Leadership Council.
“*

The road to the Democratic presidential nomination culminates in Denver. Could the vice presidential nomination also run through Colorado?

With the prospects of the “dream team” slate of Obama and Hillary Clinton fading, Salon lists Sen. Ken Salazar as one of 15 potential running mates for prohibitive favorite Barack Obama.”*

When John McCain launched his Spanish-language website earlier this week, I commented that immigration would be a tough issue for him during the general election (and possibly problematic for Democrats too).

Even Bill O’Reilly gave him a gentle jab when McCain appeared on his show yesterday.”*

In the ad, McCain touts “pro-innovation immigration policies” in English (a move to seemingly appease the right wing base), but the Spanish text that appears simultaneous to that declaration trumpets “Immigration Policy Innovation,” a term that makes it sound like he supports comprehensive immigration reform.”*

The difference is small - less than a percentage point, but it reflects a long-term demographic shift that could benefit Democrats: the increasing dominance of non-Cubans, particularly Puerto Ricans, among Floridians of Hispanic descent.

For years, conservative, anti-Castro Cubans, mainly in South Florida, have made the Hispanic vote a GOP bastion in Florida. However, waves of Puerto Ricans, Mexicans, Colombians, Venezuelans and others are turning Florida’s Hispanic cohort into more of a swing vote, experts say.”*

While conceding Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the Democratic Party’s nomination for president are fading, U.S. Sen. Carl Levin on Saturday stopped short of calling for her to withdraw from the race.

“The odds are against her,” Levin said. But he added, “It’s not over until one of the candidates says it’s over, but that’s not the situation.”

More certain is that the Democratic National Committee will seat Michigan’s delegation at the convention in Denver this August, predicted Levin, a member of a committee proposing a compromise on how the delegates should be divided between Clinton and Barack Obama.”*

John McCain spent a considerable portion of his news conference in Phoenix last week outlining his presidential campaign’s new efforts to reach Hispanic voters.

When a reporter asked him if he was worried about a potential backlash from the most conservative segment of his own party, the presumptive Republican nominee shrugged off any concern.

“My party is the party of Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan. My party is an inclusive party. My party reaches out to every citizen, every American who shares our views and our optimism and our belief in the principles of this great nation,” McCain said.”*

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View more “Did You Know?” facts in our “Did You Know?” section

The murder of the acting chief of Mexico’s federal police amid an unprecedented wave of drug gang attacks on security officials will soon become a major issue in the U.S. presidential candidates’ escalating war for Hispanic votes.

Until now, Republicans and Democrats had tried to make as little noise as possible about the Bush administration’s Mérida Initiative, a request for $500 million to help Mexico fight its drug cartels. They hoped to pass it quietly, fearing that a high-profile debate would stir up political passions on both sides of the border and kill the proposal.

But with drug war violence in Mexico escalating to record levels in recent memory, that’s changing fast.”*

he Texas Democratic Party was sued Friday by Latino advocacy groups that contend the complicated primary and caucus system used in the March 4 presidential primary unfairly diluted Latino votes.

The League of United Latin American Citizens of Texas and the Mexican American Bar Association of Houston sued in federal court, arguing the party failed to seek clearance required by the U.S. Justice Department for the so-called “Texas Two Step.” The groups also argue the system effectively discriminates against Latino voters by giving them fewer delegates.”*

Hispanic voters registered as Democrats have overtaken Hispanic Republicans in Florida, signaling a trend that, if it continues, could have far-reaching implications for the 2008 election and U.S. foreign policy.

Until now, the politically influential, mostly Republican Cuban-American community in Miami-Dade made Florida the only state in the country where, among Hispanics, Republicans outnumbered Democrats.

April voter registration statistics show 418,339 Hispanic Democrats statewide, compared to 415,068 Hispanic Republicans and 345,108 registered with neither party, according to a Florida Democratic Party analysis of state data. The state provides registration data sorted by party and race to the public only in the month before an election.”*

Now Puerto Rico, a U.S. territory for more than 100 years, has a place at the center of American political debate. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama are competing for 55 delegates to be chosen in a June 1 Democratic primary. The island also has eight superdelegates.

“We’re going to enjoy every minute of the attention,” the president of the Puerto Rican Senate, Kenneth D. McClintock, said during a recent visit to the nation’s capital.”*

In order to remain competitive in the general election, John McCain will have to perform a Herculean task: Court the Hispanic vote without alienating the base of the Republican Party.

Maverick McCain is currently viewed with suspicion by both camps. Hispanic immigration activists insist that Mr. McCain’s current proposal which emphasizes enforcing the border first and then establishing a temporary worker program is insufficient. On the other hand, many conservatives will not support Mr. McCain if he appears weak on immigration”*

In this tight battle for the democratic nomination we’ve heard a lot about the candidates courting super-delegates.

But, one superdelegate is courting the candidates. He says he’ll sell his vote for a price. A very high price: $20 million.
…
Ybarra wants every cent of the $20 million to go toward registering and educating eligible Mexican-American voters, who he calls the key to the white house.”*

Summary: On Special Report, Carl Cameron reported that on the issue of immigration, Sen. John McCain “announced that if elected, in January he’ll begin finalizing border security, then immediately launch the guest worker program and path to citizenship that many in his party oppose.” But Cameron did not note that McCain’s current position that border security must be addressed first is at odds with his prior assertion that border security could not be disaggregated from other aspects of comprehensive immigration reform without being rendered ineffective.”*

Voter registration among Dallas County residents with Spanish surnames climbed in the first four months of 2008, records show.

More than 7,500 residents with Hispanic last names registered to vote during that time, said Dallas County elections administrator Bruce Sherbet.

At the current pace, newly-registered Spanish-surnamed voters could easily surpass the 8,000 voters with Hispanic last names who registered in all of 2007.”*

After announcing the new Spanish-language page of his website during a press conference in Arizona this morning, John McCain once again tried to have it both ways on the immigration reform debate, demonstrating yet again that he’s not able to lead his own Party, much less the country.

McCain said he would pursue comprehensive immigration reform as soon as he takes office. But in the same news conference, McCain also took the opposite position: saying that the borders have to be secured first. McCain touted a virtual fence today and said we could have secured the border if it wasn’t for all the earmarks and pork spending in Washington. But as recently as March, McCain called the virtual fence a “failed effort” and a “disgrace.” Asked whether state and local law enforcement agencies should be enforcing federal immigration laws, McCain said “I support the enforcement of every law that’s on the books in the United States of America.” But moments later McCain took the opposite position, blaming the federal government for having “failed to act” and asserting, “when I’m president, beginning in January 0f 2009 we will have a federal approach to what is a federal problem.”

Today’s news conference was the latest in a string of double talk on immigration reform. Earlier this year, McCain caved in to the right wing of his Party, admitting that he would vote against his own immigration reform bill if it came to the floor of the Senate. And, despite today’s rhetoric about the need for comprehensive immigration reform, McCain’s campaign scuttled a deal on comprehensive immigration reform in the U.S. House of Representatives just last month. [CNN debate, 1/30/08; http://youtube.com/watch?v=PgvFkICnRoo; Roll Call, 4/3/08]

McCain’s double-talk is indicative of a major problem the GOP nominee faces heading to the general election, trying to both appease the Party’s conservative base while trying to reach out to moderate voters and Hispanics who have been targeted with ugly Republican Party attacks on the immigration issue. A recent survey from the nonpartisan Pew Hispanic Center found that 57% of Hispanic registered voters call themselves or lean Democrat “while just 23% align with the Republican Party — meaning there is now a 34-percentage-point gap in partisan affiliation among Latinos.” [Pew Hispanic Center, 12/06/07]

“It’s hard to know what someone’s real vision for our country is when they consistently take every side of the issues,” said Democratic National Committee spokesman Luis Miranda. “John McCain cannot have it both ways. He cannot pander to the right wing of his Party by promising an enforcement-only approach to immigration while telling Hispanics that he supports comprehensive reform. As the saying goes, ‘dime con quien andas, y te dire quien eres.’ If John McCain can’t say where he really stands, he’s giving voters one more example of why he is the wrong choice for America’s future.”

A DNC Interested Parties Memo on McCain’s difficulty with Hispanics can be found in PDF format by clicking on the link below.

http://www.democrats.org/page/-/pdf/042208_Memo_McCainHispanics.pdf

More McCain Double Talk on Immigration Reform

MCCAIN TODAY: We Can Secure Border With “Vehicle barriers, Cameras, Sensors.” “All of that can be worked out and adequately so, particularly when you get outside of populated areas where you can use vehicle barriers, cameras, sensors and many other ways. It is an issue that in my view is not only not insurmountable, but it can be worked out in cooperation between state and local and government agencies.” [McCain Media Availability, Phoenix (AZ), www.cnn.com/live feed, 5/5/08]

MCCAIN IN MARCH: McCain Called Arizona’s “High-Tech” Virtual Fence a “Failed Effort” and a “Disgrace.” The AP reported McCain “told reporters in Phoenix on Monday that not enough research has been done on the 28-mile array of radars and surveillance cameras. McCain says it is a failed effort.” “It’s a - it’s a disgrace. It’s a disgrace. They spent a huge amount of money on this quote virtual fence and it’s just. I mean. I - It’s so disappointing when the Americans highest, one of their highest priorities is to secure our borders, that we have a major corporation that gets a major contract and it turns into be a failed effort, but, in no way does this diminish my enthusiasm or anybody else’s to get our borders secure.” [CNN Live Feed (Phoenix, AZ), 3/3/08; [AP, 3/3/08]]

MCCAIN TODAY: We Must Secure The Border First. “We must secure the borders and the border state governors will then certify that the borders are secure. Then we have a temporary worker program with tamper-proof biometric documents and we address the issue of people who have come here illegally.” [CNN Live Feed (Phoenix, AZ), 5/5/08]

February of 2007: McCain Admitted He Was Pandering to Conservatives on Border Enforcement, Saying, “I Think the Fence is Least Effective. But I’ll Build the Goddamned Fence If They Want It.” “A day earlier, in Milwaukee, in front of an audience of more sympathetic businessmen, McCain had been asked how debate over the immigration bill was playing politically. ‘In the short term, it probably galvanizes our base,’ he said. ‘In the long term, if you alienate the Hispanics, you’ll pay a heavy price.’ Then he added, unable to help himself, ‘By the way, I think the fence is least effective. But I’ll build the goddamned fence if they want it.’” [Vanity Fair, February 2007]

In September of 2006, McCain Said “Enforcement First” Was “An Ineffective and Ill-Advised Approach” to Immigration Reform. “In passing this legislation, the Senate rejected the argument for an ‘enforcement first’ strategy that focuses on border security only, an ineffective and ill-advised approach. . . . “Congress cannot take a piecemeal approach to a national security crisis. I believe the only way to truly secure our border and protect our Nation is through the enactment of comprehensive immigration reform. As long as there is a need for workers in the United States and people are willing to cross the desert to make a better life for their families, our border will never be secure.” . . . “If Congress thinks that it can continue this piecemeal approach to border security and achieve any real results for our national security, it is sadly mistaken.” [Congressional Record, 9/29/06]

In May of 2006, McCain Said An Enforcement-First Approach to Immigration Reform Would Never Succeed in Stopping Illegal Immigration. “No wall, no barrier, no sensor, no barbed wire will ever stop people from trying to do what is a basic yearning of human beings all over the world, and that is to have better lives for themselves and their families.” . . . “And as much as I believe in technology and as much as I think walls are important and UAVs and all that, there has never been a case in history where you have been able to stop people from doing something that has to do with their very existence. That is the way many people feel who come here.” [Congressional Record, 5/16/06]

In March of 2006, McCain Said An Enforcement-Only Bill Would “Never Be Fully Enforceable Regardless of Every Conceivable Border Security Improvement We Make.” “The border security provisions under the leader’s bill and the Judiciary Committee’s bill provide sound proposals to promote strong enforcement and should be part of any final bill. However, I do not believe the Senate should or will pass an enforcement-only bill. Our experiences with our current immigration system have proven that outdated or unrealistic laws will never be fully enforceable regardless of every conceivable border security improvement we make. Despite an increase in Border Patrol agents from 3,600 to 10,000, despite quintupling the Border Patrol budget, despite the employment of new technologies and tactics, all to enforce current immigration laws, illegal immigration drastically increased during the 1990s.” [Congressional Record, 3/30/06]

2001: McCain Opposed Federal Funding for Border Security. In 2001, Senator McCain criticized federal funding for projects that would be used by border and law enforcement agencies to increase security measures. McCain blasted the “unrequested” spending as a “further burden to the American taxpayers.” McCain listed opposition to earmarks for several projects in Arizona that included a detainee facility in Prescott, a border guard service processing center in Florence, a border patrol sector headquarters in Tucson, and border patrol stations in Yuma and Douglas. [McCain Senate Press Release, 9/13/2001]

2003: McCain Opposed $25.6 Million for Tucson Border Control Station. In 2003, Senator McCain criticized $25.6 million for construction of a U.S. Border Patrol station in Tucson, Arizona. McCain deemed the project wasteful spending because it didn’t go through proper legislative channels. [Gannett, 4/10/2003]

2005: McCain Opposed Funds for Digital Transition and Public Safety Fund and Tactical Infrastructure At Border. In 2005 McCain opposed “$55 million for the completion of the Tucson tactical infrastructure around the border.” McCain also opposed “a provision that directs funds from the Digital Transition and Public Safety Fund that are in excess of $12 billion to be spent on, among other things, the Tucson, Arizona Border Patrol sector;” and “$30 million for Tucson, AZ Border Patrol sector for tactical infrastructure.” [Congressional Record 7/14/05; Congressional Record 12/20/05]

Paid for and authorized by the Democratic National Committee, www.democrats.org. This communication is not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee.

“*

John McCain is using Cinco de Mayo, the most American of Mexican holidays, to launch a Spanish-language version of his website. He’s also agreed to attend the National Council of La Raza annual conference this summer, which has the usual suspects up in arms.

McCain will have to pull off an interesting balancing act as the general election nears: wooing crucial, increasingly Democratic-leaning Latino voters while roping in Republicans who favor tighter immigration policies. He got a bit of practice doing just that during Republican debates — goaded by single-issue long-shots Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo, not to mention the back-and-forth between Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee over who dared show compassion to immigrants.”*