Rout by Southwest? – Colorado and neighboring Southwestern states Nevada and New Mexico could be the key swing states this November.

But despite these upticks in the Hispanic population in Colorado and New Mexico, Hispanics have not increased as a percentage of voters. Some Hispanics are noncitizens, and many are under the age of 18 and not able to vote. And many are young or recently settled residents, who tend to vote at a lower rate than that of the rest of the population. The picture is slightly different in Nevada, where in 1992 and 1996 only between 3 percent and 4 percent of voters were Hispanic. In 2000 and 2004, they made up between 6 percent and 8 percent of voters, but Hispanics are still a relatively small percentage of voters.

Though the long-term trend of Hispanic immigration may make these three states more Democratic, the relatively steady Hispanic percentage of the vote in recent elections shows that the reasons for political shifts in these states, especially Colorado, lie elsewhere. Obama likely can make these states competitive not because of a surge in Hispanic voting, but by winning over less religious white voters who make up a relatively high proportion of voters in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.”*

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