Swinging the Latin Vote

While perhaps not the defining issue this primary season, the often acrimonious immigration debate could lead to higher than average Hispanic voter turnout. This was the case in the 2006 midterm elections, when an additional 800,000 (Hispanic News) voted compared with 2004, according to the Pew Hispanic Center. February 5 may provide a clearer sense of immigration’s role as a swing issue when more than twenty states—including border states with large Hispanic populations like California, Arizona, and New Mexico—hold nominating elections. An early test case may be the January 29 Florida primary where Hispanics constitute 20 percent of the population (BBC).

Analysts will try to gauge the strength (Sun-Sentinel) of Hispanic voters in Florida, 56 percent of whom went for President Bush in the 2004 election, as compared to 40 percent of Hispanics nationwide. Courting the Cuban vote in the state, GOP candidates have all said they support the U.S. trade embargo with Cuba (WashPost). But Cubans are no longer the dominant Hispanic vote in the state, says one Democratic strategist in the Sun-Sentinel. And experts say the changing demographic makes it harder to estimate which way voters will lean.”*

*From: http://www.cfr.org
Traducido: usando Google o Altavista/Babel Fish

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QUOTE: "I don't think it's really registered with people just how influential the Latino vote can be in some of these state primaries," said NALEO's executive director, Arturo Varga