Will Foreign-born Voters Be a Significant Force in Statewide Elections? - from The Tomas Rivera Policy Institute

According to an analysis released today by the Tomás Rivera Policy Institute (TRPI) of census data on the 2004 election, foreign-born voters in states with significant electoral votes such as California, Florida, and New York can make a statewide electoral vote outcome difference if as few as three to four percent of foreign-born voters shift their partisanship or candidate preferences. (See Table 1 below.) “Few realize how large the foreign-born vote has become in selected states,” stated Harry P. Pachon, president of the Tomás Rivera Policy Institute and professor of public policy at the University of Southern California. “In six states alone they number over four million voters,” continued Pachon. Further analysis from the 2004 election examines the impact of Latino foreign-born voters in important electoral states. Again, in states with significant electoral votes such as Florida and California, Latino foreign-born voters can make a statewide electoral vote outcome difference if seven to nine percent of Latino foreign-born voters change their partisanship or candidate preferences. In the other four states it would take a significant percentage (14-35%) of the Latino foreign-born vote to cause a one percent shift in the statewide electoral vote outcome. (See Table 2 below.) Given the large number of legal permanent residents who are not yet citizens in the United States, there is a potential for the foreign-born vote to grow and to become even more significant over time.

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