Bloggings by boz: Peru’s election this Sunday

“1. Waiting for the second round. Most of the recent polls show Humala in the lead, with Flores in second and Garcia in third, although a few polls show something different. No polls show any of the three candidates coming close to the necessary 50%. It would be a real surprise (and create legitimate allegations of fraud) if either Flores or Humala managed to get a majority. The election this Sunday is really to decide the second round match.

2. Votes against. Many of Humala’s supporters are voting against the status quo. Many of Flores’ supporters are voting against Humala/Garcia. In part this is how the Peruvian electorate votes, but it is also a reflection of the negative campaigns that both candidates have run. The political strategies may be correct, but if people are voting against something, then the presidential mandate will be rather weak.”

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